THE FIFTH INTERNATIONAL SOCIALIST IN SOUTH AMERICA.
liberal newspapers on the continent in recent days have titled: GOOD NEWS FOR THE LEFT OF AMERICA SOUTH LAUNCHED THE FIFTH INTERNATIONAL SOCIALIST.
announced by Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez that back to make propaganda not only in South America to the struggle for socialism and a new invites you to join the institutions, parties and social movements that defend the socialist ideology, with the proposal Fifth International socialist countries in the southern hemisphere.
This Hugo Chávez sets off a series of meetings, activities, initiatives created in 1996 during the first international meeting against neoliberalism, organized by the Zapatista Army of Liberation National Chiapas in Mexico, meeting attended by 3000 delegates, with the presence of 42 countries, with the aim to spread, articulate and prepare the ground for the 5th International Socialist International at the time called Hope.
A very strong feeling, cha has within this context of this enterprise that only with the formation of a league policy brotherhood of socialist ideals will overcome the capital in an international perspective, presenting the basics to build the socialism of the XXI century, theory was formalized by the German professor Hans Stefan Dietrich, a former adviser to Hugo Chavez.
There is no attempt in this proposal to transfer the experience of the twentieth century and even denying the first socialist efforts for the emancipation of the working class . Apart from that you adds that the news is now convinced that this the right direction to create the new socialist society and go for the understanding of the characteristics of each country, within which the issue of national issues and multipolarity and social equality is necessary for regional integration, especially in difficulties it is experiencing global capitalism.
Chávez has taken a great task that is the ferry "this" part of the world "another new world" by leveraging its founding on its original elements, the mix of freedom and socialism, progress and social solidarity, respect for rules and renewal of political culture, that characterized the South American revolutions. The first Bolivar. The contribution of the parties importance that they have, have a base closer to the Marxist Leninist socialist movement that will evolve in the process of building the Fifth Socialist International. This is because militancy has become established worldwide in the third world involved in political struggle and not a priori natives of the proletariat, working class, but that happens deep reformulation of what Karl Marx launched the Manifesto of the Communist Party. There is a capacity in this new militancy spontaneous interesting that needs to be exploited and politicized. Chavez, inspired to go down in history as the inventor of the new model, which can be defined as "the new South American socialism": remove the rich to give to the poor "if not just as Marx, via Fidel least for Morales, to Lula with the minimum wage for all and arrive at a new socialist society ..."; However, broaden the social basis of welfare, meet the needs of the underprivileged; change the structure of economic production and control from above and from the center of financial mechanisms. Chávez, of course, assumes that all this serves to overcome the crisis, is a powerful thought, which is that politics is inspired by values, not to special interests. The message won 11 years ago this was Chávez. yet still some social issues crucial for human emancipation, such as the revolutionary seizure of power, or the increase measures to overcome the inequality between the city and the countryside, fighting illiteracy and mass secular oppression of women - that compromise Lenin and the successive governments have managed to solve with a quick denial by history and the contribution of people.
The proposal of the Fifth Socialist International, will not have the same path the first of the second and third International namely to impose immediate action of member countries but must be managed as a major trading center experiences and exchange information tactics and strategies to overcome capitalism. Over time will the operation of political orientation aimed at promoting social development.
In general, what we weigh in the history of the Fifth Socialist International, will serve mainly to give impetus to new generations of political activists, a great center of consulting experience, alternative programs to advance the socialist struggle in the context of ' current crisis of neoliberalism. However, with the job you started, it is possible that other elements of analysis can help the path of the Socialist International 5. But for now it is absolutely certain that the contribution of its members, activists and supporters will be to try to shape the future of socialism in South America and the world.
Card 1. POPULARITY 'of CHAVEZ. Viewed from the moderate left .
Chavez's popularity remains high. Seven months before the elections approval rating government is 58%. A few months before the election the majority of the population supports the government the result of Chávez a Reuter's survey, even if this is the lowest result surveys made in the last 11 years. to weigh on the popularity of Chávez is certainly, according to some analysts, the political crisis, economic and energy who did not spare Venezuela.
The survey was done in January by the Institute IVAD. After 11 years in power has risen from 71% in 2008 and 60% in 2009. Survey done liability of the economic crisis, for 46% responsibility is to Chávez and his government, the other 50% is opposition because Chavez governs as there are leaders who can deal with it.
The majority of Venezuelans criticize the energy and water rationing in the country. But 52% expressed their optimism and are convinced that the government will solve the problem.
What will happen in September, the upcoming elections:
· 39% of respondents vote for candidates with the government,
· against 34% who prefer opposition candidates.
· 10% undecided,
· 17% will not participate in the vote.
, 66% say they agree that the president can rule for another term after 2012.
The survey was wanted by the government on a sample of 1200 citizens of the region, between 16 and 28 January, with a margin of error between 1.03 to 2.37% .
Chavez with the countries of SOUTH MARCOSUL. The Marcosul that emerges from the Treaty of Asuncion is a unity of purpose, inside you practice free trade and a common commercial policy. Some analysts say the moderate left, say that perhaps this is not the best time for the entry of Venezuela also given the opposition dell'Paraguai. As is known in Venezuela was to come in 2006 and this depended on the approval of the parliaments of member countries.
The Brazilian Federal Senate recently approved the entry of Venezuela, arguing: "that such approval was not a function of the context Marcosul isolate Venezuela." In fact Brazil buys oil from Venezuela and sells technology.
Paraguay Concern is over the grave economic situation bearing in mind that 25% inflation is the highest in South America, combined with a loss of 2.5% of GDP, with a balance payments compromised economic management and a non-shared, Chávez still uses the dual system of exchange rate in the hope of a fix for ongoing management, " of noise." The report bolivar U.S. dollar went from 2.15 to 2.60 which means a devaluation of 17% for goods considered essential and the U.S. $ 1 will go through a devaluation of 50%, to 4.30 for luxuries. The impact of this policy will be an immediate beneficial effect on the trade balance, but this will result in higher inflation later this year and the decrease in consumption. Chávez is planning to put the army in all the ways to control prices traders to ensure that goods purchased before inflation are the subject of speculation. An old argument but still valid to control speculation. worth noting that the Venezuelan experience suggests to our question of the € as for most primary commodities in Italy increased by 50% without valid reasons. Maybe the government after Prodi's center-right government would have to check ongoing prices. should be recognized that the current policy of Venezuela brings to mind the old economic policy in the countries of South America , with a floating exchange rate regime that allowed it to central bank to interfere in the fluctuation known as "dirty-float". The dual exchange rate regime in force in Venezuela World counteracts the tendency in the freedom of the foreign exchange market. The balance of payments of Venezuela with the rest of the country and Marcosul marks a downward trend. very much in the countries of Marcosul complain inadequate domestic spending, use of the abundance of oil revenues has failed to control public expenditure and return the balance of payments surplus. argue that in 11 years of Chávez government, with rising oil eight times failed to prevent the devaluation of 90% of Bolivar. With the high cost of oil was possible to harmonize the social costs and solve the problems of energy, water, transport and services
Card 2. beginning of the end of Chavez? Viewed from the moderate right in the country.
This year will surely be a difficult year that Hugo Chávez live since he took power in Venezuela. The ability of the President to resolve the crisis and hide seems to have reached its limit. If the situation continues to deteriorate, the government will be powerless to find new solutions to the crisis and you might think, then, that we face to the breaking point and that will be the beginning the end of the Chavez regime.
Augmentation the crisis of recent months has worsened the living conditions of the Venezuelan people and the government will have no credible explanation or excuse for the indulgence of the population.
Key personnel have lost the confidence to sell hope for a better country.
The inevitable devaluation of 2009 has resulted in a price increase that will put the country on the brink of inflation between 50% and 60%, by far the highest in Latin America. And if the price is added to the high overall shortage of products needs, the unbearable rationing of water services and electricity, and the growing insecurity in the city, is an explosive cocktail that Chávez is unlikely to can deactivate their populist rhetoric, with 's "imperialist" U.S., or the threat of invasion of Colombia.
Chávez has today the lowest popularity ratings of his term, which shows that Venezuelans are beginning to understand the historical failure of the Chavez regime. After 11 years in power and have spent over 950 billion U.S. dollars of the gold mine of oil, its economy in capital, industrial production has declined, social plans do not work, entrepreneurs are fleeing the country and 60% of their food must be purchased abroad. Furthermore, while swimming in a sea of \u200b\u200boil, the country is undergoing a structural crisis of energy due to the lack of investment and maintenance of its facilities that will not be sufficient to resolve four or five years.
In contrast to the lack of domestic investment, Chávez gave more than 61 billion dollars in aid to other countries. Until into the coffers of the state the money was abundant after growth oil, no one complained, but now, amid the economic crisis because of the price swing oil no longer enough to keep accounts in surplus and increased external debt.
All this is a terrible situation of insecurity that is multiplied by four, the murder rate in the country since Chavez came to power. Before this, the government remained unmoved, but with an official speech was justified in part criminal violence as a viable expression of the struggle of the poor against the rich, and that undoubtedly contributes the growing insecurity in the country.
The crisis begins to touch the doors of government. In 2009, senior officials were involved in corruption scandals. Also in 2009 gave up the defense ministers of the environment and the central bank, between the student protests and riots caused by the closure of six television networks.
Heinz Dietrich, chief ideologue of the regime, the government has described as "a Titanic about to sink and the Ambassador of Venezuela to the OAS Roy Chaderton , publicly expressed his concern for the survival of the revolution boliveriana.
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